The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics

This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs

The Eighth Central European Conference "Chemistry towards Biology": snapshot

The Eighth Central European Conference "Chemistry towards Biology" was held in Brno, Czech Republic, on 28 August – 1 September 2016The Eighth Central European Conference "Chemistry towards Biology" was held in Brno, Czech Republic, on 28 August-1 September 2016 to bring together experts in biology, chemistry and design of bioactive compounds; promote the exchange of scientific results, methods and ideas; and encourage cooperation between researchers from all over the world. The topics of the conference covered "Chemistry towards Biology", meaning that the event welcomed chemists working on biology-related problems, biologists using chemical methods, and students and other researchers of the respective areas that fall within the common scope of chemistry and biology. The authors of this manuscript are plenary speakers and other participants of the symposium and members of their research teams. The following summary highlights the major points/topics of the meeting

Lycopene: total-scale literature landscape analysis of a valuable nutraceutical with numerous potential applications in the promotion of human and animal health

Lycopene intake from tomatoes and other food sources has multiple potential health benefits. This report aimed to evaluate the current research literature on lycopene concerning human and animal health. The electronic Web of Science Core Collection database was searched with (lycopene*) AND (health* OR illness* OR disease* OR medic* OR pharma* OR drug* OR therap*). The resulted 3972 papers were analyzed with the aid of bibliometric software. Besides the United States, the lycopene papers received global contributions, particularly from China, Italy, India, and Spain. Examples of frequently mentioned chemicals/chemical classes were carotenoid, beta carotene, alpha carotene, beta cryptoxanthin, and alpha tocopherol. Examples of frequently mentioned medical conditions were prostate cancer, cardiovascular disease, and obesity. Published scientific articles reveal the diverse potential of lycopene in prompting human and animal health, and the knowledge on the bioactivities of this phytoche(undefined)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Forty-Sixth Euro Congress on Drug Synthesis and Analysis: Snapshot

The 46th EuroCongress on Drug Synthesis and Analysis (ECDSA-2017) was arranged within the celebration of the 65th Anniversary of the Faculty of Pharmacy at Comenius University in Bratislava, Slovakia from 5-8 September 2017 to get together specialists in medicinal chemistry, organic synthesis, pharmaceutical analysis, screening of bioactive compounds, pharmacology and drug formulations; promote the exchange of scientific results, methods and ideas; and encourage cooperation between researchers from all over the world. The topic of the conference, Drug Synthesis and Analysis, meant that the symposium welcomed all pharmacists and/or researchers (chemists, analysts, biologists) and students interested in scientific work dealing with investigations of biologically active compounds as potential drugs. The authors of this manuscript were plenary speakers and other participants of the symposium and members of their research teams. The following summary highlights the major points/topics of the meeting

Measurement of prompt open-charm production cross sections in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

The production cross sections for prompt open-charm mesons in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13TeV are reported. The measurement is performed using a data sample collected by the CMS experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 29 nb(-1). The differential production cross sections of the D*(+/-), D-+/-, and D-0 ((D) over bar (0)) mesons are presented in ranges of transverse momentum and pseudorapidity 4 < p(T) < 100 GeV and vertical bar eta vertical bar < 2.1, respectively. The results are compared to several theoretical calculations and to previous measurements.Peer reviewe

Development and validation of HERWIG 7 tunes from CMS underlying-event measurements

This paper presents new sets of parameters (“tunes”) for the underlying-event model of the HERWIG7 event generator. These parameters control the description of multiple-parton interactions (MPI) and colour reconnection in HERWIG7, and are obtained from a fit to minimum-bias data collected by the CMS experiment at s=0.9, 7, and 13Te. The tunes are based on the NNPDF 3.1 next-to-next-to-leading-order parton distribution function (PDF) set for the parton shower, and either a leading-order or next-to-next-to-leading-order PDF set for the simulation of MPI and the beam remnants. Predictions utilizing the tunes are produced for event shape observables in electron-positron collisions, and for minimum-bias, inclusive jet, top quark pair, and Z and W boson events in proton-proton collisions, and are compared with data. Each of the new tunes describes the data at a reasonable level, and the tunes using a leading-order PDF for the simulation of MPI provide the best description of the dat

Observation of the Production of Three Massive Gauge Bosons at root s=13 TeV

The first observation is reported of the combined production of three massive gauge bosons (VVV with V = W, Z) in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The analysis is based on a data sample recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1). The searches for individualWWW, WWZ, WZZ, and ZZZ production are performed in final states with three, four, five, and six leptons (electrons or muons), or with two same-sign leptons plus one or two jets. The observed (expected) significance of the combinedVVV production signal is 5.7 (5.9) standard deviations and the corresponding measured cross section relative to the standard model prediction is 1.02(-0.23)(+0.26). The significances of the individual WWW and WWZ production are 3.3 and 3.4 standard deviations, respectively. Measured production cross sections for the individual triboson processes are also reported

Reconstruction of signal amplitudes in the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter in the presence of overlapping proton-proton interactions

A template fitting technique for reconstructing the amplitude of signals produced by the lead tungstate crystals of the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter is described. This novel approach is designed to suppress the contribution to the signal of the increased number of out-of-time interactions per beam crossing following the reduction of the accelerator bunch spacing from 50 to 25 ns at the start of Run 2 of the LHC. Execution of the algorithm is sufficiently fast for it to be employed in the CMS high-level trigger. It is also used in the offline event reconstruction. Results obtained from simulations and from Run 2 collision data (2015-2018) demonstrate a substantial improvement in the energy resolution of the calorimeter over a range of energies extending from a few GeV to several tens of GeV.Peer reviewe